0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402
0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$215.2K
Total PnL
$19.2K
Realised
$-2.1K
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
114005 shares @ 35.4¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.0K
$8.6K
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
74192 shares @ 61.4¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$42.7K
$-2.9K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
23271 shares @ 84.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$19.9K
$349.07
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
20000 shares @ 86.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.3K
$1.1K
- YES
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
253408 shares @ 4.1¢·now 5.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$14.3K
$3.9K
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
30449 shares @ 34.4¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$12.6K
$2.2K
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
207463 shares @ 4.7¢·now 4.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.1K
$296.26
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
10000 shares @ 74.8¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.8K
$2.3K
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
10000 shares @ 79.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$9.7K
$1.8K
- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
5000 shares @ 94.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$5.0K
$280.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$185.20Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$4.32Jul 28, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$80.04Jul 28, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$7.08Jul 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$2.40Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$7.08Jul 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$7.08Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$12.53Jul 28, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill one person dissent the July Fed decision?$717.36Jul 28, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$16.96Jul 28, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill one person dissent the July Fed decision?$474.65Jul 28, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the July Fed decision?$769.12Jul 28, 11:59 UTC
- REWARD$0.20Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$11.51Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$2.44Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$5.82Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$11.44Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$5.73Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$18.94Jul 26, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$157.84Jul 26, 17:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 3 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
71%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
$11.0K · 41% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $83.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.