Distorted-Backpack
0xcf2385a383bc0e8f025c6d7f098026dc8f900d5d
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
195
Open notional
$20.43
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$102.07
Win rate
12%
137 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 195- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
71 shares @ 24.1¢·now 19.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.81
$-3.39
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.55
$-2.25
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
8 shares @ 38.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.89
$-2.11
- YES
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?
2 shares @ 40.4¢·now 29.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.72
$-0.28
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
7 shares @ 52.9¢·now 9.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.69
$-3.16
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.31
$-0.69
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.21
$-0.79
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.10
$-0.90
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
12224 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-40.45
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 10?$2.78Aug 10, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 10?$0.05Aug 10, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?$1.00Aug 9, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 10?$1.03Aug 8, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 10?$1.04Aug 8, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?$4.13Aug 8, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 6?$6.00Aug 6, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 8?$1.04Aug 6, 15:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 8?$1.03Aug 6, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 8?$1.04Aug 6, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on August 6?$0.30Aug 6, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on August 6?$2.10Aug 6, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 6?$2.00Aug 5, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 5?$10.00Aug 5, 21:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 5?$2.25Aug 5, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 6?$0.03Aug 5, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 6?$0.07Aug 5, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 5?$0.10Aug 5, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 6?$0.45Aug 5, 07:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 6?$0.05Aug 5, 07:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 137 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
137 closed markets, 12% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 05:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 22:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 137 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.