0xcf279d521e62d60848dbfba1791617dc9a99f35f
0xcf279d521e62d60848dbfba1791617dc9a99f35f
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$604.27
Total PnL
$-303.58
Realised
$-169.26
Win rate
0%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
45 shares @ 67.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$37.39
$7.39
- NO
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
41 shares @ 73.3¢·now 88.9¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$36.37
$6.37
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
56 shares @ 36.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$35.27
$15.28
- NO
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?
43 shares @ 69.7¢·now 80.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$34.41
$4.41
- NO
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
37 shares @ 82.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$33.48
$3.48
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
40 shares @ 75.8¢·now 79.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$31.59
$1.59
- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
37 shares @ 81.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$30.18
$0.18
- NO
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
43 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.36
$-0.64
- NO
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?
35 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.12
$-0.88
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
37 shares @ 82.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$27.44
$-2.56
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$0.00Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMMilwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5$0.00Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)$0.00Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5$0.00Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMChicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds$0.00Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score in First Half$0.00Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMHouston Astros vs. Texas Rangers$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista (Bantamweight, Main Card)$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMKansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Brandon Royval vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Card)$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)$0.00Jul 12, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMTucuman: Segundo Goity Zapico vs Federico Coria$0.00Jul 12, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMWimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev$0.00Jul 12, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMWimbledon WTA: Talia Gibson vs Marie Bouzkova$0.00Jul 12, 12:01 UTC
- REDEEMWimbledon WTA: Solana Sierra vs Coco Gauff$0.00Jul 12, 12:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $20.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 01:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.