Crushing-Geography
0xcf3dc520363f866277d5a5b7cafab5340a54d571
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$10.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-247.23
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - October 7, 5PM ET
2056 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 7, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 3PM ET
1746 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 12, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
1501 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-126.00
- NO
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8PM ET
1113 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-34.14
- NO
Grokipedia released by October 31?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
851 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET
820 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9PM ET
762 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-44.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$100.00Mar 20, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.00Feb 28, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.00Feb 28, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.00Feb 25, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.00Feb 25, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.00Feb 25, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$1.00Feb 25, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$5.00Feb 25, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$5.00Feb 25, 06:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Gulf of America" during the State of the Union address?$31.67Feb 25, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$2.96Feb 25, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.50Feb 25, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$2.00Feb 25, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.00Feb 25, 06:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 17, 16:40 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 06:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.