U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$4.76
Liquidity
$19.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5988.1h
- 11:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5988h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 19¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 15¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 15¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 16¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 17¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 17¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 17¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).