Confused-Task
0xcf712cf58b6e3dab8da0ad694f33352db6622ea2
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$47.09
Total PnL
$-71.52
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?
47 shares @ 17.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$47.09
$38.88
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
455 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Trump approval >40% on July 1?
303 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
262 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-3.40
- YES
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?
223 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
150 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
117 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 3% and 6% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
43 shares @ 23.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
31 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Brad Lander’s vote share be between 12% and 15% in the first round of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?
27 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$8.21Feb 3, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$30.00Feb 3, 03:33 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown Saturday?$38.22Feb 2, 18:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown Saturday?$28.75Jan 25, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$23.35Jan 23, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$59.82Dec 9, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?$32.36Dec 9, 16:44 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: December$8.62Dec 9, 16:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?$81.00Dec 9, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYNothing Ever Happens: December$15.00Dec 3, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$15.00Dec 3, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$15.00Dec 3, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$50.00Nov 12, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?$50.00Nov 12, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in September?$190.28Nov 7, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$3.40Nov 3, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?$0.91Nov 3, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration in 2025?$2.50Nov 3, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in September?$13.42Sep 29, 17:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?$5.96Sep 29, 17:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $21.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 20:43 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 3, 03:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.