Wallet digest

active

Activity score

84/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$440.49

Total PnL

$0.49

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May?
200 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$200.20
$0.20
NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?
160 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$160.16
$0.16
NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?
20 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$20.04
$0.04
NO
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?
10 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$10.07
$0.07
NO
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$10.02
$0.01
NO
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$10.01
$0.01
NO
2026 Balance of Power: Other
10 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$10.01
$0.01
NO
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028
$9.99
$-0.01
NO
Will Trenten Merrill win The Bachelorette Season 22?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 30, 2026
$9.99
$-0.01

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:20 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 15, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 13, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 12, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 11, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 10, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 9, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 8, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 7, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 6, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

review

7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity51 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry0 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk66 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 7
Avg trade size: $60.01
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 15, 00:12 UTC
Last active: Jun 20, 00:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:42:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data