Puzzled-Lemon
0xcf9e5170095a2f063699efef91f4adf06402e286
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$321.37
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$219.02
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
11263 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$304.10
$39.97
- YES
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
350 shares @ 8.8¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.28
$-21.68
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
500 shares @ 34.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$8.00
$-162.00
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?
4021 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-342.71
- YES
Netanyahu out by March 31?
2900 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-143.10
- YES
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
1829 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-252.06
- YES
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?
1008 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.80
- YES
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?
500 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?
400 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
400 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-76.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.03Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 8, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Jul 3, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $75.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.