Spanish-Helo
0xcfaa35e2b176ee04e85c440836309f43a1d5183d
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$36.96
Total PnL
$-5.7K
Realised
$-116.89
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
9 shares @ 95.5¢·now 97.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.67
$0.17
- NO
Will the Central African Democratic Rally win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$5.00
$0.00
- NO
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.12
$0.03
- NO
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship?
3 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$2.94
$0.01
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
3 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.51
$0.15
- NO
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2 shares @ 98.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.02
$0.02
- NO
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
2 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$1.92
$0.09
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
2 shares @ 94.4¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.92
$0.07
- NO
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.65
$0.02
- NO
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
2 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.42
$0.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Freddie Mac’s market cap be less than $150B at market close on IPO day?$1.75Jul 1, 07:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy OnlyFans?$1.04Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- REDEEMTesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?$1.40Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$1.10Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?$1.02Jun 30, 22:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.07Jun 30, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$31.58Jun 19, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$1.18Jun 17, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?$30.07Jun 17, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$5.63Jun 14, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$6.38Jun 13, 23:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?$1.02Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?$1.06Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?$1.09Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Drake release Iceman before GTA VI?$1.80Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?$1.93Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?$2.51Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$6.01Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-14?$5.31Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?$3.15Jun 12, 23:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $4.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 03:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 07:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.