Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+12.0pp
24h Vol
$821.67
Liquidity
$3.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+9.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1311.4h
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1311h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 19¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 20¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 20¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 19¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 19¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 17¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 18¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 18¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 22¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.5pp
to 25¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 25¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 26¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.0pp
to 25¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 6¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 5¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 6¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 5¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 6¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to thisAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).