Golden-Adaptation
0xcfeac35ce3bf82a8cd667a1b99c6545bcf40182a
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$33.99
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$1.9K
Win rate
14%
182 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Brøndby IF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: Neither team to score first?
20 shares @ 5.1¢·now 48.9¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$9.64
$8.64
- YES
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cesena FC: Neither team to score first?
19 shares @ 5.2¢·now 50.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$9.58
$8.58
- YES
Will Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
135 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.03
$-0.07
- YES
Will Brent Bien win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
54 shares @ 2.4¢·now 3.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.85
$0.55
- YES
Will Brice Barnes be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
16 shares @ 7.6¢·now 9.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.48
$0.28
- YES
Will Nic Zateslo be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?
18 shares @ 6.7¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.34
$0.14
- YES
Will George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?
14 shares @ 8.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.31
$0.21
- YES
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 5–10%?
46 shares @ 2.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.23
$0.23
- YES
Will Byron Donalds win the Florida Republican Governor primary by 10–15%?
68 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.7¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.16
$0.06
- YES
Will Reid Rasner be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
52 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.05
$-0.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPisa SC vs. Empoli FC: Neither team to score first?$1.15Aug 17, 12:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06?$1.13Aug 17, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIF Gnistan vs. Tampereen Ilves: Neither team to score first?$1.15Aug 17, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Sassuolo Calcio vs. Cesena FC: Neither team to score first?$1.05Aug 17, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBrøndby IF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: Neither team to score first?$1.05Aug 17, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$1.35Aug 17, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$1.24Aug 17, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jim Oberweis be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$1.04Aug 17, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on August 17?$1.15Aug 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on August 17?$1.15Aug 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 17?$1.05Aug 16, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on August 17?$1.15Aug 16, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 17?$1.15Aug 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 17?$1.26Aug 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYArsenal FC vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to Score$1.05Aug 16, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?$1.24Aug 16, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?$1.53Aug 16, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan Franzese be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$1.24Aug 16, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?$1.14Aug 16, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$1.24Aug 16, 14:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 182 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
182 closed markets, 14% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 17:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 12:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 182 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.