Intent-Mangle
0xd004876add4d37cb1faf450dc8dbdee247db6a78
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$249.28
Total PnL
$-112.40
Realised
$0.96
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 24.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$24.53
$17.03
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
58 shares @ 14.1¢·now 39.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$22.78
$14.65
- YES
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
48 shares @ 60.2¢·now 40.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$19.61
$-9.52
- YES
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
34 shares @ 35.9¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$18.47
$6.20
- NO
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?
16 shares @ 72.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$14.87
$3.36
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
60 shares @ 20.7¢·now 22.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.60
$1.10
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 28.7¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.55
$8.55
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
115 shares @ 10.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$12.65
$1.15
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
26 shares @ 45.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.86
$-0.64
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
37 shares @ 30.7¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.29
$-1.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Jul 15, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Jul 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$3.83Jul 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.51Jul 15, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$5.00Jul 15, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Cuba military clash in 2026?$5.00Jul 15, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.33Jul 15, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.33Jul 15, 18:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.64Jul 15, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.94Jul 15, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.64Jul 15, 18:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$2.54Jul 15, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?$11.91Jul 15, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$11.87Jul 15, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?$17.99Jul 15, 17:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2.36Jul 15, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 16?$0.29Jul 15, 16:02 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 16?$1.87Jul 15, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?$5.00Jul 15, 15:59 UTC
- TRADESELLIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 16?$3.09Jul 15, 15:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 00:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 19:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.