Sarcastic-Payoff
0xd024f07ecd962630ee3e7f8513955adf708d60b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$71.08
Total PnL
$-4.99
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?
36 shares @ 28.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2026$9.29
$-0.71
- YES
Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
60 shares @ 14.9¢·now 13.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$7.85
$-1.15
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
66 shares @ 13.7¢·now 11.8¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$7.70
$-1.30
- YES
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?
75 shares @ 10.7¢·now 9.3¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$7.02
$-0.98
- YES
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
25 shares @ 20.0¢·now 23.1¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$5.76
$0.76
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?
14 shares @ 36.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2026$4.86
$-0.14
- YES
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
19 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$4.81
$-0.19
- YES
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$4.79
$-0.21
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?
15 shares @ 34.3¢·now 31.5¢·exp Oct 23, 2026$4.60
$-0.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$8.29Jul 25, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$9.31Jul 25, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?$9.31Jul 25, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?$0.07Jul 25, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?$1.00Jul 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?$1.00Jul 25, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?$1.00Jul 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?$1.00Jul 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Putin meet next in United States?$1.00Jul 25, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?$5.16Jul 25, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?$5.16Jul 25, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$5.00Jul 25, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$5.00Jul 25, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$5.00Jul 25, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$10.00Jul 25, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?$10.36Jul 25, 19:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $4.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 19:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 21:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.