Periodic-Demand
0xd0de227553db9a748cb6265820df346452672ef6
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$631.50
Total PnL
$259.17
Realised
$-0.52
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?
339 shares @ 25.2¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$321.77
$236.27
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
161 shares @ 62.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$110.28
$10.46
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
100 shares @ 96.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$95.51
$-0.50
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
189 shares @ 17.9¢·now 23.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$43.62
$9.82
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?
16 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.72
$0.72
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$11.98
$1.98
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.37
$0.37
- NO
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
17 shares @ 59.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.25
$0.25
- NO
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
18 shares @ 55.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.64
$-0.36
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
105 shares @ 1.6¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.36
$0.68
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$20.00Jul 27, 15:29 UTC
- REWARD$1.14Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$62.00Jul 24, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$13.02Jul 24, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$24.80Jul 24, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$19.62Jul 24, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$19.62Jul 24, 16:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.11Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$37.93Jul 23, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$10.35Jul 23, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$3.57Jul 23, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?$10.80Jul 22, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?$96.19Jul 22, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$1.76Jul 22, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?$9.48Jul 22, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?$9.62Jul 22, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$1.31Jul 22, 21:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?$9.67Jul 22, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?$1.78Jul 22, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?$9.82Jul 22, 21:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $17.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 20:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 15:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.