Lawful-Might
0xd0e736035b7d140ec5e8cae85c0a32305e46b0d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
39
Open notional
$147.76
Total PnL
$-8.2K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1756 shares @ 6.2¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$89.36
$-18.64
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?
542 shares @ 48.1¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$29.79
$-230.63
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?
845 shares @ 17.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.38
$-121.78
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
54 shares @ 71.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.22
$-32.19
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?
12570 shares @ 22.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.8K
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31?
9125 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July?
6791 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-391.80
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4200 in July?
5516 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-266.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?
4664 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-760.22
- YES
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31?
4561 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-422.17
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.