Wiry-Estuary
0xd1049158a102840ce595efc6ab683a0cb6fbacef
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
50
Open notional
$227.6K
Total PnL
$-410.1K
Realised
$-2.7K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 50- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?
35000 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$34.8K
$52.50
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
34779 shares @ 96.8¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$33.7K
$34.08
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?
32375 shares @ 96.7¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$31.9K
$568.33
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
29756 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$29.6K
$248.37
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
25000 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$25.0K
$5.0K
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 23?
11611 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$11.6K
$30.87
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
12058 shares @ 96.2¢·now 95.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$11.5K
$-126.61
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
20000 shares @ 48.5¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.1K
$400.04
- NO
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?
10000 shares @ 86.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.7K
$1.1K
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
9635 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.0K
$144.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$97.44Jul 24, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$1.0KJul 24, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)$4.5KJul 24, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$177.59Jul 24, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$606.24Jul 24, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$7.0KJul 24, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$2.3KJul 24, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$116.04Jul 24, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$13.92Jul 24, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$2.0KJul 24, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$169.82Jul 24, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$2.36Jul 24, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$201.31Jul 24, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$175.82Jul 24, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$1.2KJul 24, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$967.00Jul 24, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$420.55Jul 24, 16:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.5KJul 24, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$21.3KJul 24, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$29.30Jul 24, 16:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 5 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
35%
Sample
limited
5 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
$69.4K · 54% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.0K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 13:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 19:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.