Authentic-Flexibility
0xd222ac4160be5850c7fa435e7131d9e7cd47fdb5
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$958.27
Total PnL
$-654.85
Realised
$-124.44
Win rate
17%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
1360 shares @ 13.9¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$190.40
$0.90
- YES
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?
2626 shares @ 5.3¢·now 4.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$107.68
$-30.77
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1791 shares @ 13.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$98.48
$-139.49
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
345 shares @ 26.9¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.94
$2.07
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
1081 shares @ 21.6¢·now 6.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$67.56
$-166.09
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
471 shares @ 18.4¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$65.88
$-20.82
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
259 shares @ 19.3¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.39
$13.49
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
1014 shares @ 7.1¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$58.33
$-13.42
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
1084 shares @ 10.1¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.78
$-61.21
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
529 shares @ 11.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.66
$-23.34
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$1.00Jul 28, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$31.03Jul 28, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 28, 03:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$3.00Jul 27, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$15.00Jul 27, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$25.87Jul 27, 13:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by December 31?$2.00Jul 26, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5.00Jul 26, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$16.00Jul 26, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$32.57Jul 26, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$2.00Jul 26, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$5.00Jul 26, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$25.85Jul 26, 12:49 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by August 31?$34.85Jul 26, 12:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$2.00Jul 25, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$3.00Jul 25, 18:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
17% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $7.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 00:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.