Bustling-Peacoat-Antecedent
0xd233646aea452c24eaf948edf829f87dfee714f3
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$480.84
Total PnL
$-502.63
Realised
$-13.39
Win rate
0%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
101 shares @ 73.1¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$90.65
$16.63
- YES
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?
84 shares @ 82.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$65.94
$-2.94
- YES
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
58 shares @ 82.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$53.07
$5.51
- NO
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
45 shares @ 84.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$43.04
$5.24
- FUT ESPORTS
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs
59 shares @ 66.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$38.65
$-0.29
- NO
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
41 shares @ 85.0¢·now 83.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$34.09
$-0.76
- BOSTON RED SOX
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
52 shares @ 54.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2026$27.56
$-0.52
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
38 shares @ 75.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$27.17
$-1.33
- NO
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
44 shares @ 62.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$26.62
$-0.66
- KT ROLSTER
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)
54 shares @ 44.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$23.49
$-0.27
Recent activity
- REDEEMCincinnati Open, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Alina Charaeva$22.00Aug 18, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMChicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs$0.00Aug 18, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMChicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs$39.00Aug 18, 03:43 UTC
- REDEEMAtlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins$42.00Aug 18, 03:29 UTC
- REDEEMAthletics vs. Kansas City Royals$8.00Aug 18, 02:42 UTC
- REDEEMMiami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies$42.00Aug 18, 02:08 UTC
- REDEEMSan Diego Padres vs. New York Mets$75.86Aug 18, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins$36.37Aug 18, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5$8.50Aug 18, 01:28 UTC
- REDEEMCincinnati Open: Linda Noskova vs Clara Tauson$50.00Aug 18, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies$33.53Aug 17, 23:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. New York Mets$44.92Aug 17, 23:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays$21.54Aug 17, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYGame Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)$24.43Aug 17, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FUT Esports vs magic (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs$39.60Aug 17, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs$23.48Aug 17, 23:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Linda Noskova vs Clara Tauson$27.00Aug 17, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Kansas City Royals$5.21Aug 17, 11:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox$5.31Aug 17, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYDetroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$4.92Aug 17, 11:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $25.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 13:55 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 03:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.