Disastrous-Thought
0xd28021317c1be36239e8d930dee7d6c3a40082b3
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$15.5K
Total PnL
$-5.3K
Realised
$-62.20
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$13.8K
$6.8K
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30?
460 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$448.49
$1.68
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
400 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$396.20
$-0.70
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
1305 shares @ 28.7¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$267.46
$-106.59
- YES
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
14000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$231.00
$-6.8K
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
201 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$194.95
$0.20
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1629 shares @ 22.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$171.02
$-187.97
- YES
Will France win on 2026-06-16?
100 shares @ 66.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$66.50
$0.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27?
4952 shares @ 99.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-4.9K
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27?
47 shares @ 36.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-17.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$4.97Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.25Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$4.97Jun 14, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$198.20Jun 13, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET$1.0KJun 13, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$96.30Jun 13, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$97.60Jun 13, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by June 30?$98.00Jun 13, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30?$0.35Jun 13, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET$999.00Jun 13, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$99.30Jun 13, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET$5.05Jun 13, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET$5.04Jun 13, 09:08 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30?$1.55Jun 13, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$99.40Jun 13, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET$5.20Jun 13, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$399.00Jun 13, 00:33 UTC
- YIELD$1.25Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET$5.19Jun 12, 23:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by June 30?$23.06Jun 12, 17:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $124.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 20:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.