Iran leadership change by December 31?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 39¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Light volume — move on a thin book

   Only $8.0k traded against $103.3k of visible liquidity (0.08× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5982h with open resolution ambiguity.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.