Bronze-Wind
0xd2ba40ce7e64db7500e59a5e58d57033b35b0fa4
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
71
Open notional
$6.70
Total PnL
$-75.24
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 14.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$3.43
$2.43
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 27.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
7 shares @ 29.5¢·now 15.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.02
$-0.98
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 21.0¢·now 11.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.53
$-0.47
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
11 shares @ 9.4¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.41
$-0.59
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.72
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
393 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Wuthering Heights be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
245 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will GOAT be the highest grossing movie this weekend?
193 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?$1.02Jun 17, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?$1.11Jun 17, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?$1.05May 20, 17:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?$1.54May 20, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$1.04Apr 30, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-30?$1.02Apr 30, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?$1.00Apr 30, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 30, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?$1.00Apr 30, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$1.00Apr 30, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$1.05Apr 30, 08:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$3.73Apr 30, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?$1.00Apr 20, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?$1.00Apr 20, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 8, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.00Apr 8, 13:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?$4.47Apr 7, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.11Apr 7, 11:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?$0.00Apr 7, 10:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?$0.00Apr 7, 10:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 20:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 02:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.