Venerated-Worm
0xd322042a30de8e21855f35d064a734aa0c228503
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
150
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-127.44
Realised
$86.09
Win rate
59%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 150- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
200 shares @ 94.9¢·now 94.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$189.40
$-0.40
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
143 shares @ 64.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$92.40
$0.72
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
90 shares @ 91.5¢·now 90.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$81.15
$-0.99
- NO
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
200 shares @ 37.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$70.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$56.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 52.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$49.00
$-55.00
- YES
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?
100 shares @ 62.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.50
$-14.50
- NO
Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?
50 shares @ 91.5¢·now 89.3¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$44.67
$-1.07
- NO
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?
50 shares @ 87.0¢·now 87.6¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$43.82
$0.32
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 88.6¢·now 84.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$42.92
$-2.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?$34.00Jul 23, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$1.78Jul 23, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?$7.95Jul 23, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?$15.55Jul 23, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$9.00Jul 23, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?$8.73Jul 23, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?$43.50Jul 23, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.06Jul 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$50.20Jul 23, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$23.51Jul 23, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$9.14Jul 23, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$32.75Jul 23, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$17.25Jul 23, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$42.30Jul 23, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$10.85Jul 23, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?$31.55Jul 23, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?$8.87Jul 23, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 30, 2026?$2.52Jul 23, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?$1.04Jul 23, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?$26.00Jul 23, 20:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
76/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
46 closed markets, 59% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $27.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 19:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 21:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.