Villainous-Ivory
0xd385f648c97b02d5252e7a616e8958c5b81bdd8a
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$231.06
Total PnL
$-15.02
Realised
$198.69
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$42.50
$-3.00
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
100 shares @ 66.8¢·now 28.5¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$28.50
$-38.35
- NO
Base FDV above $5B one day after launch?
37 shares @ 70.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$25.16
$-0.74
- YES
Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
32 shares @ 58.9¢·now 67.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$21.44
$2.60
- NO
Will it rain in Philadelphia, PA on August 23?
65 shares @ 47.7¢·now 28.5¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$18.59
$-12.52
- ANTHROPIC + OPENAI
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
45 shares @ 49.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$17.32
$-4.72
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
21 shares @ 81.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.58
$-0.31
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?
35 shares @ 38.6¢·now 45.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.75
$2.25
- NO
Will Dallas, TX face tornado risk on August 23?
15 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$14.32
$0.07
- NO
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
20 shares @ 72.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$13.50
$-0.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Dallas, TX face tornado risk on August 23?$14.25Aug 23, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Philadelphia, PA on August 23?$22.28Aug 23, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in New York, NY on August 23?$8.04Aug 23, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Philadelphia, PA on August 23?$9.64Aug 23, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill it rain in Chicago, IL on August 22?$20.00Aug 23, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Chicago, IL on August 22?$10.45Aug 22, 15:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?$3.41Aug 17, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat?$9.60Aug 17, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?$11.00Aug 17, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026?$2.90Aug 10, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?$0.10Aug 10, 14:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?$17.33Aug 10, 14:28 UTC
- MERGEWill Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?$2.61Aug 10, 14:27 UTC
- REWARD$0.81Aug 8, 00:20 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Aug 7, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?$9.93Aug 6, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?$2.16Aug 6, 09:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?$9.45Jul 30, 12:30 UTC
- TRADESELLTom Holland as Spider-Man?$17.40Jul 29, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLAnthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?$3.80Jul 28, 10:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $15.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 21:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 14:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.