Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 24¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $25.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.