Optimistic-Palace-Appropriation
0xd4723012e2172620580ccbea7a150a7009588cf9
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-290.59
Realised
$-9.44
Win rate
0%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
1102 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 3?
450 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?
92 shares @ 8.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-8.12
- YES
Will Selena Gomez be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
80 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$0.00
$-34.00
- TEAM NEMESIS
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage
67 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- FAKE DO BIRU
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs ex-Vexa - Map 2 Winner
63 shares @ 79.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Abigail Anderson be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids?
55 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$0.00
$-22.00
- NO
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 4?
51 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NUTORIOUS
Counter-Strike: Voca vs NuTorious (BO3) - BLAST Open North American Qualifier Playoffs
50 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$1.05Jul 19, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$2.22Jul 19, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-19?$5.19Jul 19, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 2 Winner$1.65Jul 14, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Patins da Ferrari - Map 2 Winner$2.02Jul 14, 14:19 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$6.38Jul 14, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$6.19Jul 14, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$6.01Jul 14, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$6.03Jul 14, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$6.03Jul 14, 13:47 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: eSuba vs Misa Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs$1.64Jul 14, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: eSuba vs Misa Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs$2.04Jul 14, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLCounter-Strike: fnatic vs Brute - Map 2 Winner$2.35Jul 14, 13:36 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.19Jul 14, 13:35 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.74Jul 14, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.01Jul 14, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$6.05Jul 14, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$6.19Jul 14, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$6.19Jul 14, 13:30 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$6.25Jul 14, 13:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
41 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $4.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 18:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 21:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.