Quarterly-Mangle
0xd4804b391688d885f9d4ee3d149142f2ee405ef7
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$105.66
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$0.53
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
101 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.95
$-0.05
- YES
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
515 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.83
$0.80
- YES
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1250 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.88
$-0.63
- CANUCKS
Canucks vs. Predators
4012 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 24, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?
80 shares @ 31.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.52
- YES
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?
27 shares @ 81.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-22.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.92
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$101.00Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?$29.20Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?$80.24Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?$29.17May 23, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?$80.02May 12, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.60May 12, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.38May 12, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?$26.24May 12, 01:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$30.03May 12, 01:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?$53.15May 12, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?$26.22Apr 24, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?$30.00Apr 24, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?$53.00Apr 5, 13:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?$9.00Apr 5, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$10.01Apr 5, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?$15.03Apr 5, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?$15.06Apr 5, 13:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $200 in March?$60.12Apr 5, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?$8.99Mar 29, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$10.00Mar 17, 01:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $22.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 7, 16:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 8, 01:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.