Wallet profile

Strange-Creche

0xd4aef53973f29fa1feb3ee36b1b6fe7420d07aa6

activity 18/100

Wallet digest

Activity score

18/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

35

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-9.1K

Realised

$108.37

Win rate

9%

35 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 35

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.25Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.27Jul 19, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.28Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.28Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.20Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
  • REDEEMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$464.12Jul 16, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.25Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
  • REDEEMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$827.37Jul 15, 00:07 UTC
  • YIELD$0.25Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.26Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.26Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.26Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.28Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.27Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
  • YIELD$0.27Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
  • YIELD$0.29Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
  • REDEEMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$338.03Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.31Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.32Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.33Jul 4, 00:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100
read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

9% win rate over 35 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record
pass

35 closed markets, 9% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
0
Avg trade size
$0.00
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 4, 00:15 UTC
Last active
Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
Win rate sample
35 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 02:46:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data