Descriptive-Heir
0xd4d19a0841f2cc6d0c93f3e58a1f2b48d057e3e4
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$14.67
Total PnL
$-6.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.34
$0.00
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$1.81
$0.78
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C on April 15?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$1.63
$0.00
- NO
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.55
$0.00
- NO
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$1.35
$0.01
- NO
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.35
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.27
$0.00
- NO
US strike on Cuba by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.18
$0.01
- NO
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.17
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$1.02
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 13, 2026?$1.24Jul 14, 06:03 UTC
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?$1.18Jul 14, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?$1.16Jul 11, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 13, 2026?$1.24Jul 11, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on July 6?$1.14Jul 6, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on July 6?$1.14Jul 5, 07:05 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?$1.24Jul 3, 22:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?$1.14Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.28Jun 30, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?$1.14Jun 28, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsraeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?$1.24Jun 28, 09:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$2.49Jun 19, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.28Jun 14, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$1.24Jun 14, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?$1.24Jun 14, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.34May 31, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 60-79 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?$1.34May 9, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.34Apr 30, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah disarm by April 30?$1.17Apr 29, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 30?$1.27Apr 29, 00:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $5.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 4, 08:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 06:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.