Costly-Monopoly
0xd4e89464705b215e6bba396a3b073be0a265e624
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$5.39
Total PnL
$-21.61
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$2.94
$0.94
- YES
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
1 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$1.33
$0.33
- NO
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
5 shares @ 44.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.06
$-1.94
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
13 shares @ 61.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25?
13 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?
5 shares @ 21.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?
4 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.12Mar 9, 13:20 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$4.00Mar 9, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?$8.00Mar 2, 10:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$2.35Mar 1, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25?$3.00Feb 25, 20:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.21Feb 25, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$1.00Feb 20, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?$3.00Feb 20, 12:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.00Feb 20, 12:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?$2.00Feb 20, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs$2.00Feb 20, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs$1.00Feb 20, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$1.00Feb 20, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYPrince Andrew sentenced to prison?$1.00Feb 20, 12:52 UTC
- REDEEMGovernment shutdown on Saturday?$1.33Feb 17, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13?$1.72Feb 17, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?$1.00Feb 13, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win fewer than 100 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?$1.00Feb 13, 16:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$2.00Feb 13, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February?$1.00Feb 13, 14:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $1.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 13, 14:24 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 9, 13:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.