Rare-Collateral
0xd506aa3c9985b2f091e49aa1181e3757c32372a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$5.96
Total PnL
$-438.53
Realised
$9.09
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- NO
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
6 shares @ 58.0¢·now 88.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.65
$1.94
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
8 shares @ 14.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.31
$-0.81
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?
1334 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
941 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.42
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?
840 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-25.08
- YES
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?
834 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
353 shares @ 29.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-102.96
- NO
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 17?
260 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.04
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $21.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 21, 15:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.