Winged-Weapon
0xd515ae3ecf67973b4958072b3994803001cc2c54
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$1.8K
Total PnL
$-267.99
Realised
$41.24
Win rate
82%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- YES
Will Milakulo Tukumuli be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?
890 shares @ 51.7¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$875.40
$415.41
- YES
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?
442 shares @ 67.9¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$289.23
$-10.77
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
404 shares @ 29.7¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$157.37
$37.37
- FRANCE
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
167 shares @ 59.7¢·now 59.6¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$99.78
$-0.22
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
198 shares @ 50.5¢·now 50.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.68
$-0.32
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
196 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$99.02
$-0.98
- YES
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026?
223 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$58.97
$-1.04
- YES
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
76 shares @ 39.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$43.13
$13.13
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
33 shares @ 90.6¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$27.97
$-2.04
- YES
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?
61 shares @ 33.0¢·now 32.9¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$19.92
$-0.08
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$102.01Jul 13, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$20.22Jul 13, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$10.03Jul 13, 04:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$44.77Jul 13, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?$102.31Jul 13, 04:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alcide Ponga be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?$190.58Jul 13, 03:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Argentina end in a draw?$20.67Jul 12, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon 2026: Any Player to Violate Dress Code?$12.87Jul 12, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$44.38Jul 12, 08:40 UTC
- REDEEMArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$101.52Jul 12, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$100.07Jul 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$100.15Jul 12, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance$100.11Jul 12, 03:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?$103.09Jul 12, 03:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$1.88Jul 12, 02:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?$21.83Jul 12, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$10.11Jul 12, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?$100.16Jul 12, 02:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $63.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 22:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.