New-Debtor
0xd56d08c6cff7e9571d27a13c31c48515af1012a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$329.19
Total PnL
$-147.63
Realised
$38.24
Win rate
62%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- NO
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by July 31?
72 shares @ 92.5¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$69.78
$3.24
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
75 shares @ 85.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$68.63
$4.47
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 68.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$36.20
$9.00
- NO
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by July 31?
29 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$28.65
$0.75
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$23.27
$3.36
- NO
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027?
30 shares @ 70.5¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.80
$1.65
- NO
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 91.5¢·now 90.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$22.57
$-0.29
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
20 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$19.73
$0.14
- NO
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by July 31?
20 shares @ 96.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$19.45
$0.71
- NO
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by July 31?
9 shares @ 97.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$8.92
$0.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.75Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$30.01Jul 29, 00:48 UTC
- REWARD$1.41Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$3.17Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$45.00Jul 28, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$49.00Jul 28, 15:24 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$19.99Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.75Jul 28, 13:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sui reach $1.80 before 2027?$3.62Jul 28, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026?$4.60Jul 28, 11:03 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$30.01Jul 28, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$3.74Jul 28, 10:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$49.00Jul 28, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$3.00Jul 28, 08:10 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$19.99Jul 28, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$0.75Jul 28, 06:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?$49.25Jul 28, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sui reach $1.80 before 2027?$3.45Jul 28, 02:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 50 by July 31?$0.51Jul 28, 01:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $10.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 05:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.