Trained-Sniffle
0xd5b97d08ec6098407bfbf66c2786ccc9967fe44e
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$76.7K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
56%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
43200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$23.3K
$1.7K
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
43000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.8K
$-1.7K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
3400 shares @ 81.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.9K
$160.00
- NO
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
2054 shares @ 49.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.9K
$859.06
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
1900 shares @ 89.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$1.9K
$174.84
- NO
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
1923 shares @ 84.2¢·now 88.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.7K
$88.90
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1501 shares @ 80.1¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$242.38
- YES
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
6976 shares @ 34.6¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-1.2K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
1271 shares @ 65.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.1K
$254.16
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
1648 shares @ 68.5¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.1K
$-74.23
Recent activity
- YIELD$4.23Aug 5, 02:29 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$714.29Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- YIELD$4.23Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$3.78Aug 4, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$700.00Aug 3, 22:32 UTC
- YIELD$4.23Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$17.10Aug 2, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$8.09Aug 2, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$151.22Aug 2, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$8.46Aug 2, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$171.13Aug 2, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump praise Allah again by July 31?$0.00Aug 2, 09:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?$0.00Aug 2, 09:39 UTC
- REDEEMTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?$0.00Aug 2, 09:39 UTC
- YIELD$4.23Aug 2, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMAndrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?$400.00Aug 1, 06:16 UTC
- YIELD$4.23Aug 1, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?$9.24Jul 31, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?$0.09Jul 31, 21:30 UTC
- YIELD$4.23Jul 31, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $75.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 08:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 02:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.