Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?
Probability
7¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$174.14
Liquidity
$33.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5987.0h
- 13:02SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.7pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.8pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.1pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.8pp
to 7¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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