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OtherExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?

Probability

1h

+0.4pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$174.14

Liquidity

$33.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

-3.6pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:02
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5987.0h

    LOW
  • 13:02Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.7pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.1pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.8pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.0pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -10.1pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.8pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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