Agonizing-Mayor
0xd5c4da09fa7bf7220ca6d488b04f907407b6f701
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
78
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-386.67
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
1044 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.75Jun 20, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?$46.86Jun 20, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$24.13Jun 20, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.64Jun 20, 06:21 UTC
- TRADESELLAbstract FDV above $1B one day after launch?$8.23Jun 20, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?$5.32Jun 20, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.82Jun 20, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?$37.36Jun 20, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?$20.87Jun 20, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.82Jun 20, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.96Jun 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLOpensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?$9.17Jun 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLAbstract FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$4.20Jun 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.20Jun 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLProbable FDV above $200M one day after launch?$3.01Jun 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.78Jun 20, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.23Jun 20, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.96Jun 20, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.12Jun 20, 06:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $11.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 30, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.