Thorny-Livestock
0xd6034d00be37f48e46623c5b6ce5e96e46e2b84d
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$17.50
Total PnL
$-22.50
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
49 shares @ 18.2¢·now 23.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$11.62
$2.62
- NO
French election called by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 76.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.60
$0.60
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
6 shares @ 51.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.68
$-1.32
- YES
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- YES
Brex IPO before 2027?
2 shares @ 41.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.04
$-0.96
- NO
Will Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?
88 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
22 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition
9 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?
7 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?$0.02Mar 22, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?$1.00Mar 22, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.72Mar 22, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?$1.00Mar 22, 14:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Edouard Philippe be the next mayor of Le Havre?$1.00Mar 22, 14:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?$1.00Mar 22, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?$5.04Mar 22, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?$1.00Mar 22, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$1.56Mar 22, 14:20 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?$3.01Mar 22, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 14, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 14, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?$5.00Feb 14, 18:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?$1.93Feb 11, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?$2.00Feb 10, 12:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?$2.33Feb 10, 12:22 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$6.03Feb 10, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.00Feb 6, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?$2.00Feb 6, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$3.00Feb 6, 11:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 23:31 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 22, 19:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.