Irritating-Venti
0xd6321c049c527e8a622d6aa35f514ae74f798afb
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
72
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$754.57
Realised
$629.06
Win rate
74%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
800 shares @ 50.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$639.60
$239.60
- NO
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
626 shares @ 66.4¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$541.48
$125.89
- NO
Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
340 shares @ 93.8¢·now 94.1¢·exp Mar 31, 2028$320.38
$1.11
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
407 shares @ 53.9¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$303.05
$83.58
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
300 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$280.50
$19.50
- NO
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
260 shares @ 90.3¢·now 95.2¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$247.94
$12.76
- NO
Will India have an Ebola case in 2026?
256 shares @ 74.9¢·now 80.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$204.53
$12.93
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
200 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$189.00
$33.00
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 89.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.00
$5.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$183.00
$7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?$33.55Aug 1, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?$128.78Aug 1, 01:04 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Aug 1, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Aug 1, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.87Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$200.00Jul 31, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$706.06Jul 31, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$148.78Jul 31, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?$59.33Jul 31, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$0.49Jul 31, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$3.04Jul 31, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$115.50Jul 31, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$0.94Jul 31, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$0.87Jul 31, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$0.84Jul 31, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$1.01Jul 31, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$0.32Jul 31, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$11.17Jul 31, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$3.80Jul 31, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?$145.86Jul 31, 15:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $28.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 08:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.