Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$82.75
Liquidity
$32.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.5pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Mar 31, 2028
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official government information
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Mar 31, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 14577.1h
Price movement
-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: +8.9pp at Jul 31, 05:00 UTC (to 11¢).
Show top 8 of 38 hourly moves
- 13:00 · -8.2pp → 6¢
- Jul 31, 17:00 UTC · +5.8pp → 8¢
- Jul 31, 15:00 UTC · +5.7pp → 8¢
- Jul 31, 13:00 UTC · +5.7pp → 8¢
- Jul 31, 11:00 UTC · +5.8pp → 8¢
- Jul 31, 05:00 UTC · +8.9pp → 11¢
- Jul 31, 03:00 UTC · +8.7pp → 11¢
- Jul 31, 02:00 UTC · +8.6pp → 11¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
prime ministerReason
Prime Minister selection / confirmation markets — Politics regardless of country.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
As of Sun, 02 Aug 2026 14:55:49 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +4.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Mar 31, 2028 (2028-03-31T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$82.75 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $9.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $32.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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