Useful-Sugar
0xd64eda4fbaa407036cef75e722705ebda3ff6173
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$6.47
Total PnL
$-59.31
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
3 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.20
$-0.00
- NO
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.29
$0.00
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.98
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 20?
5377 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.38
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 11?
5359 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-10.72
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on February 20?
3313 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.94
- YES
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 7?
1085 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-6.51
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 13?
1082 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 14?
1082 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.33
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 31?
1080 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump pardon SBF by July 31?$3.20Jul 9, 05:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meituan have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$2.29Jul 3, 09:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.20Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17?$2.13Jun 17, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 8?$2.10Jun 8, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.20Jun 2, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.21Jun 2, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$2.18Jun 2, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 30?$2.11May 30, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?$3.20May 21, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $100 on May 21?$2.14May 21, 02:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 12?$2.16May 12, 01:07 UTC
- REDEEMTrump out as President by April 30?$2.29May 6, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?$3.17May 6, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.20May 6, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $50 on May 3?$2.10May 3, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22?$2.14Apr 22, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?$3.16Apr 14, 03:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 13?$2.16Apr 13, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$2.26Apr 6, 12:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $498.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 03:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 05:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.