Pleased-Grandparent
0xd666d37149f40073f7f61fbf92abefed45d80027
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$64.35
Total PnL
$55.59
Realised
$41.16
Win rate
88%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-06-20?
24 shares @ 21.7¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$7.32
$2.10
- YES
Will Club The Strongest vs. Club Aurora end in a draw?
19 shares @ 27.3¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$7.16
$2.09
- YES
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Draw
9 shares @ 33.3¢·now 49.9¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$4.25
$1.41
- YES
Will Marlene Galán-Woods be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?
168 shares @ 0.2¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$4.11
$3.77
- YES
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Sri Lanka Winner
8 shares @ 33.3¢·now 49.6¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$4.07
$1.33
- YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?
11 shares @ 0.2¢·now 36.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.97
$3.94
- YES
Will Odisha FC vs. Odisha FC end in a draw?
5 shares @ 4.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$2.58
$2.38
- NO
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Most Sixes Afghanistan Winner
5 shares @ 0.0¢·now 50.1¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$2.54
$2.54
- YES
Will Michael Sowers win the 2026 PLL Attackman of the Year?
5 shares @ 2.7¢·now 46.2¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$2.40
$2.26
- YES
Will TJ Malone win the 2026 PLL Attackman of the Year?
5 shares @ 2.7¢·now 46.2¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$2.40
$2.26
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Michael Butts be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Democratic nominee?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 21?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on July 21?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 21?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 21?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 21?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on July 21?$0.00Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Sønderjyske Fodbold 3 - 0 FC Midtjylland?$0.05Jul 22, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 24?$0.04Jul 22, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?$0.02Jul 22, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 22?$0.30Jul 22, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 22?$1.08Jul 22, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 22?$0.03Jul 22, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?$0.32Jul 22, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?$0.12Jul 22, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?$0.08Jul 22, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?$0.17Jul 22, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 22?$0.41Jul 22, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 22?$0.11Jul 22, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on July 22?$0.80Jul 22, 08:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $0.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 07:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 08:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.