Revolving-Snowboarding
0xd8022d5ef2d91b2f91ecd1514db8e56ff3c4d766
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$6.05
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-24.34
Win rate
0%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 16?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$2.13
$0.13
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 74.0¢·now 73.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?
282 shares @ 63.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-180.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on May 10?
221 shares @ 54.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10?
220 shares @ 77.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-170.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 12?
142 shares @ 35.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-50.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?
133 shares @ 90.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-120.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 17?
130 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-55.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 16?$2.01Aug 16, 09:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?$1.88Aug 16, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$2.03Aug 15, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$2.29Aug 15, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?$2.01Aug 14, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?$2.02Aug 13, 15:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$2.01Aug 13, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cook Islands Party win the most seats in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?$2.00Aug 11, 23:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?$1.79Aug 11, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$2.38Aug 11, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$2.02Aug 11, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$3.03Aug 10, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?$2.03Aug 10, 02:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "My Life with the Walter Boys: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?$2.13Aug 10, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "My Life with the Walter Boys: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week?$2.01Aug 9, 03:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$2.35Aug 7, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$2.01Aug 7, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?$1.96Aug 7, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in August?$2.01Aug 6, 02:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?$2.08Aug 6, 01:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
56 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 23:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 09:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.