Political-Vase
0xd80edf6d8fcf48a502d9b717f2d12af0c31f1b85
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$5.44
Total PnL
$-4.64
Realised
$-0.04
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
1 shares @ 81.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.19
$0.15
- NO
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.10
$-0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.07
$-0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$1.06
$0.00
- YES
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- YES
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m?
2 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will Illinois win the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 8, 2025$0.00
$-0.69
- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Dec 8 – Dec 12?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-0.66
- YES
Will Zelah Glasson win Big Brother UK Series 22?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 14, 2025$0.00
$-0.61
- YES
Will NexFuckingThing win the Aster trading competition?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.61
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?$6.38Jun 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?$7.50Jun 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent the June Fed decision?$1.02Jun 17, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18?$8.23Jun 17, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18?$9.30Jun 17, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?$1.05Jun 17, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$10.42Jun 17, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?$11.50Jun 17, 19:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?$1.01May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 29?$1.07May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$1.07May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMMadrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie$1.08May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600b and $610b on April 30?$1.08May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of April?$1.09May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP dip to $0.60 in April?$1.12May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMForeign intervention in Gaza by April 30?$1.12May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?$1.13May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill BNB reach $800 in April?$1.14May 7, 17:42 UTC
- REWARD$0.57Apr 29, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYMadrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie$1.06Apr 28, 09:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $6.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 05:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 19:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.