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BusinessExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of April?

Probability

96¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+6.2pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$3.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+1.7pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:11
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Up 6pp over 24h

    Now 96¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 5.4¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 91¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 126.8h

    LOW
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -4.4pp

    to 94¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -7.3pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -6.3pp

    to 90¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.7pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 93¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.1pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.1pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.1pp

    to 98¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.4¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).