Variable-Mrna
0xd81dd6154ac7c30b39b37ccfbe92507ce4c8fb58
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$12.85
Total PnL
$-450.34
Realised
$-17.65
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
13 shares @ 38.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$12.85
$7.85
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 5AM ET
23000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
16000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during WEF Address on January 21?
6432 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-68.98
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?
412 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 6AM ET
386 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?
235 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 30, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?$0.74Mar 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.68Mar 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$12.66Mar 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 30, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 30, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$1.00Mar 27, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$1.00Mar 27, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$5.00Mar 27, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$4.29Mar 27, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$9.76Mar 27, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 25, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$5.00Mar 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?$1.00Mar 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?$1.00Mar 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 24, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 24, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1.00Mar 24, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$1.00Mar 19, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$5.58Mar 19, 17:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 08:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.