Variable-Mrna
0xd81dd6154ac7c30b39b37ccfbe92507ce4c8fb58
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
81
Open notional
$12.90
Total PnL
$-450.29
Realised
$-17.65
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 81- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
13 shares @ 38.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$12.85
$7.85
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
16 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.05
$-0.95
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 5AM ET
23000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
16000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during WEF Address on January 21?
6432 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-68.98
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during January press conference?
412 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 6AM ET
386 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$10.00Mar 30, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?$0.74Mar 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.68Mar 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?$12.66Mar 30, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 30, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 30, 2026?$1.00Mar 30, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$1.00Mar 27, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?$1.00Mar 27, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$5.00Mar 27, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$4.29Mar 27, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$9.76Mar 27, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 25, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$5.00Mar 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?$1.00Mar 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?$1.00Mar 24, 15:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 24, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$5.00Mar 24, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1.00Mar 24, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$1.00Mar 19, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$5.58Mar 19, 17:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 18:58 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 08:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".