0xd85a5f7e65e1fa2be886bbcad16004377207a650
0xd85a5f7e65e1fa2be886bbcad16004377207a650
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$692.97
Total PnL
$93.41
Realised
$69.45
Win rate
27%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 24?
461 shares @ 12.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$460.66
$403.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 28?
155 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$154.86
$2.82
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 24?
39 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$39.14
$0.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 29?
18 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$17.50
$0.70
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
17 shares @ 75.9¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$17.12
$4.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on March 29?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$2.35
$0.28
- NO
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
60 shares @ 63.6¢·now 1.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.11
$-37.15
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
24 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.21
$-4.71
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23?
1000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-7.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 23?
1000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.00Apr 25, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.09Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.06Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.30Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.30Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.06Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.05Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.03Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.05Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.03Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.15Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.30Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$0.04Apr 25, 10:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
30 closed markets, 27% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 12, 01:09 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 25, 10:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.