Obvious-Octave
0xd87496805972548bc32f8f0776a0718b3642b926
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$3.80
Total PnL
$-112.08
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
2 shares @ 72.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.08
$0.58
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
23 shares @ 22.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.73
$-3.33
- NO
Will Trump say "Drill" or "Drilling" during oil executive meetings on Friday?
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Fact Check: Maduro capture staged?
660 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-12.11
- YES
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
80 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- NO
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5?
71 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.71
- YES
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?
60 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-47.40
- YES
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
51 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$0.40Feb 21, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$0.80Feb 21, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$0.80Feb 21, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?$1.00Jan 31, 06:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown last 14 days or more?$27.30Jan 29, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 14 days or more?$23.70Jan 28, 23:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?$2.40Jan 27, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of January?$2.00Jan 26, 23:38 UTC
- SPLIT100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$1.00Jan 24, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?$1.00Jan 24, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$29.10Jan 20, 23:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$5.06Jan 18, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYOdds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?$47.40Jan 14, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?$0.37Jan 14, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026?$0.63Jan 14, 11:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$1.37Jan 14, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$2.00Jan 14, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$12.63Jan 14, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?$6.82Jan 13, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?$1.77Jan 13, 21:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 20:48 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 21, 20:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.