Sarcastic-Calf
0xd88214774c81789ed4be449307cb7ab5742e3b0e
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-541.93
Realised
$-0.76
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
3669 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.50
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
1433 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-36.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
1356 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-44.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 31?
1040 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?
1011 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 22?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?$1.00Apr 26, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump dance today?$1.00Apr 26, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$2.00Apr 26, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$10.00Apr 7, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.50Apr 7, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$2.00Apr 6, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 in April?$1.00Apr 6, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.00Apr 5, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.00Mar 31, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?$1.00Mar 29, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?$1.00Mar 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1.12Mar 24, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$1.00Mar 23, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.00Mar 23, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?$1.00Mar 23, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?$1.00Mar 23, 22:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?$7.10Mar 23, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$1.00Mar 23, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?$1.00Mar 23, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.00Mar 23, 10:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 15:26 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 19:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.