Wilted-Burden-Survivor
0xd8d5289c35124b5353f5a10a28b8cc29aec38935
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$201.8K
Total PnL
$10.5K
Realised
$4.9K
Win rate
82%
92 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
9022 shares @ 96.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$8.7K
$73.54
- NO
Iran leadership change by July 31?
6308 shares @ 95.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$6.3K
$264.25
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
6644 shares @ 71.8¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$6.2K
$1.4K
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
5288 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.3K
$209.74
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
5090 shares @ 97.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$5.0K
$90.77
- NO
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
5000 shares @ 86.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.3K
$-16.66
- NO
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
4417 shares @ 94.4¢·now 97.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.3K
$116.35
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
5000 shares @ 83.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.3K
$100.04
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5000 shares @ 82.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.9K
$-189.64
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
4000 shares @ 90.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.7K
$48.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$17.53Jul 28, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$0.49Jul 28, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$43.78Jul 28, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$190.36Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$40.45Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$12.73Jul 28, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$3.00Jul 28, 18:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$4.99Jul 28, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$133.30Jul 28, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$233.10Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?$369.33Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$40.39Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$4.99Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$69.00Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$23.00Jul 28, 18:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$55.44Jul 28, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$59.76Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$8.10Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$664.85Jul 28, 18:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?$95.24Jul 28, 18:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
75/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 92 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
92 closed markets, 82% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
$11.8K · 60% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $111.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 16:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 92 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.