Blond-Wriggler
0xd950ef37b32702061d63e44a8475c360193cad1b
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
151
Open notional
$29.4K
Total PnL
$-888.84
Realised
$-1.4K
Win rate
50%
80 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 151- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
3300 shares @ 73.9¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$85.62
- NO
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
2000 shares @ 76.6¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$-1.43
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
2000 shares @ 66.7¢·now 60.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.2K
$-134.92
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1500 shares @ 80.4¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$-20.89
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
1400 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$994.01
$-13.50
- NO
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 62.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$885.01
$257.67
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
877 shares @ 91.7¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$824.37
$19.47
- NO
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?
967 shares @ 76.4¢·now 81.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$787.61
$49.40
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
2268 shares @ 31.7¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$782.30
$63.18
- NO
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
1110 shares @ 65.8¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$771.44
$40.61
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$16.19Jul 29, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.92Jul 29, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$49.88Jul 29, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$33.98Jul 29, 10:05 UTC
- MERGEWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$12.14Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- MERGEIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$900.00Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$0.66Jul 29, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$13.50Jul 29, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$0.07Jul 29, 09:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$125.00Jul 29, 09:17 UTC
- MERGEWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?$150.00Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?$13.50Jul 29, 09:16 UTC
- MERGEWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$40.00Jul 29, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$3.30Jul 29, 08:50 UTC
- MERGEUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$44.40Jul 29, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$14.83Jul 29, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$783.64Jul 29, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$37.60Jul 29, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$269.98Jul 29, 04:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 80 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
80 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $87.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 22:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 80 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.