Costly-Hour
0xd990ad35098482db6b99fdd9aa5c446eac6f4349
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$133.58
Total PnL
$-618.81
Realised
$1.85
Win rate
57%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
87 shares @ 48.6¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$63.95
$21.70
- YES
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.25
$0.25
- YES
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
33 shares @ 61.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.18
$-0.82
- YES
Will David Harbour – “DTF St. Louis” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
20 shares @ 66.1¢·now 66.6¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$13.33
$0.11
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
11 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.00
$0.03
- NO
Trump out as President before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.26
$0.26
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
18 shares @ 17.4¢·now 3.4¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.61
$-2.54
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 2?
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$1.01Jul 28, 20:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 28?$2.01Jul 28, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 28?$1.01Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill PayPal say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call?$1.02Jul 28, 15:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$5.02Jul 28, 10:53 UTC
- REDEEMLos Cabos Open: Coleman Wong vs Darwin Blanch$1.28Jul 28, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PayPal say "Quarter" 15+ times during earnings call?$1.00Jul 28, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Procter & Gamble say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?$1.00Jul 28, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on July 29?$5.00Jul 28, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$5.00Jul 28, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 28?$2.00Jul 28, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Cabos Open: Coleman Wong vs Darwin Blanch$1.01Jul 28, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$1.00Jul 28, 05:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$2.01Jul 27, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 27?$2.01Jul 27, 16:13 UTC
- REDEEMECS England: Rainham vs Upminster$1.20Jul 27, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 28?$1.00Jul 27, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$2.00Jul 27, 10:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $2.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 03:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.